IBADAN, Nigeria — Why tomato prices will drop in Nigeria October 2026 now tops market talk.
Tomato sellers still collect #1,200 per kg at Bodija market, Ibadan on the 17/06/2006 at 9:30 am. Yet farmers across Western Nigeria say relief comes in October.
The Tomatoes and Orchard Producers Association of Nigeria, TOOPAN is of the opinion that a price crash is inevitable as fresh harvest from Jos, Kaduna, Kano, Gombe, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo and Lagos hit the market. This report elucidates the reasons for price fall of tomatoes in Nigeria October 2026 as gleaned from the Osun, Ekiti, Ondo and Ogun farmers.
1. Why Tomato Prices Will Drop in Nigeria October 2026: TOOPAN Harvest Forecast [Updated]
TOOPAN President Oyeleke Bola said supply will outpace demand from October. Small-scale farmers in South-West now produce 20–30 tonnes per hectare. In addition, northern states will harvest from Jos, Kaduna, Kano, and Gombe.
“By October, we will be harvesting tomatoes from Jos, Kaduna, Kano, Gombe and down south-west in Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, and part of Lagos,” Bola told reporters.
Consequently, food price will probably go down, starting with tomato in Nigerian 2026. On April 2026, NBS valued 1kg of tomatoes at N1,600.73 in Bayelsa State, N730.48 in Plateau State; Western Nigeria has an average price of N1,379.57 in South West.
2. 3 Reasons Why Tomato Prices Will Drop in Nigeria October 2026
Marketers and farmers list three reasons for the expected crash:
- New harvest glut: Irrigation farms in Oyo and Ondo start peak harvest in late September. “We planted in June. By October, trucks will leave Igboora for Lagos,” said Sulaimon Adebayo, tomato farmer in Ibarapa LGA, Oyo State.
- Insecurity drop in Plateau: Farmers fled fields in 2024–2025. Now, Plateau farmers return. NBS said Plateau had the cheapest tomatoes at ₦730.48 in April. More supply cuts prices.
- Fertiliser intervention: The Agriculture Minister said food prices dropped 50% nationwide due to interventions. Fertiliser and seeds reached farmers in Ekiti and Osun in May.
Therefore, why tomato prices will drop in Nigeria October 2026 comes down to supply, security, and inputs.
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3. Why Tomato Prices Will Drop in Nigeria October 2026: State-by-State Data [Table]
Current prices show how far tomatoes may fall. NBS April 2026 data:
| State/Zone | 1kg Tomatoes April 2026 | October 2026 Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayelsa | ₦1,600.73 | ₦600 | -62% |
| South-West Avg | ₦1,379.57 | ₦550 | -60% |
| Plateau | ₦730.48 | ₦400 | -45% |
| Osun | Cost of diet ₦1,809/day | Tomato basket ₦3,000 | -55% |
| Ondo | Cost of diet ₦1,736/day | Tomato basket ₦3,200 | -50% |
Traders in Shasha Market, Akure, expect a paint bucket of tomatoes to fall from ₦8,000 to ₦3,500. “Once Jos and Oyo bring plenty, Lagos buyers won’t pay ₦1,500 per kg again,” said Mama Kehinde, tomato wholesaler on Oyemekun Road, Akure.
4. Why Tomato Prices Will Drop in Nigeria October 2026: What It Means for Western Nigeria
Western Nigeria eats more stew, so tomato cost hits hardest. In April 2026, south-west recorded the highest ginger (6,812.92/kg and beans (1,787.09/kg). There was a tomato drop, which has reduced cost of stew for families in Ilesa, Ado-ekiti, Abeokuta
Okada riders who move tomatoes from farms will earn less per trip. But POS operators expect higher sales as market traffic rises. “When tomato cheap, mama put go cook more. We sell more pepper and onions,” said Kemi Ojo, POS agent at Oja Oba, Ado-Ekiti.
Meanwhile, caterers in Osogbo and Ilesa plan bulk buys. “I froze tomatoes in May at ₦1,300 per kg. By October, I’ll buy fresh at ₦500,” said Mrs. Funmi Alabi, event caterer in Alekuwodo, Osogbo.
5. Why Tomato Prices Will Drop in Nigeria October 2026: Risks That Could Stop It
The drop is not sure. Three risks remain:
- Floods: When September rains cause overflow in Ogun and Oyo farms, it does not allow harvest.
- Fuel price: Diesel at ₦1,100/litre raises transport from Jos to Lagos. Food prices in Nigeria 2026 stay high if transport spikes.
- Export demand: Ghana and Benin traders may mop up supply, keeping prices up.
Still, TOOPAN insists October will bring relief. “Demand has outweighed supply because farmers cannot access their farms,” Popoola Gomna, pepper leader, said. With access restored, why tomato prices will drop in Nigeria October 2026 becomes reality.
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